O Fundo Monetário Internacional está preocupado com a situação, em termos orçamentais, da Guiné-Bissau. A conclusão foi tirada após a visita ao país de uma missão do organismo, liderada por Tobias Rasmussen, que aconteceu entre seis e 10 de Maio.

O objetivo era avaliar a situação das finanças públicas, debater a evolução do sector financeiro e avaliar o interesse das autoridades guineenses na realização de um novo acordo com o FMI. Na sua declaração final Tobias Rasmussen foi claro e deixou alertas:

“A situação orçamental da Guiné-Bissau continua sob stress. Primariamente devido a despesas mais elevadas do que o previsto, o défice público em inícios de 2019 ultrapassou significativamente a meta do projecto de orçamento. O défice foi também significativamente superior ao período homólogo de 2018, ano em que se estima ter atingido 5,1% do PIB, numa base de compromissos. Simultâneamente cresceram as pressões sobre o financiamento, resultando num crescente saldo de contas por pagar", afirmou o representante do referido fundo.

Apesar dos alertas o responsável admite que o aumento na produção de caju deverá levar ao crescimento do PIB real, que deverá passar de 3,8 por cento, em 2018, para cerca de 5%, em 2019. Ainda assim deixa um aviso: se os preços praticados na venda do caju forem baixos corre-se o risco de quebra na actividade económica e na receita pública.

Tobias Rasmussen deixou indicações claras sobre a direção que o país tem de seguir rumo ao crescimento:

"Para reduzir o défice, garantir o pagamento tempestivo de salários e outras obrigações, assim como estancar os aumentos da dívida pública, será necessária uma combinação abrangente de mobilização acrescida de receita, contenção da despesa e identificação de financiamento adicional. Um primeiro passo para tentar fazer regressar o défice aquém do critério UEMOA de 3% do PIB, tão cedo quanto possível, seria fazer reviver o Comité de Tesouraria - o que ajudaria a controlar a despesa - após o que o Governo a ser constituído, o que ainda não aconteceu a jusante das eleições de 10 de Março, terá que fazer aprovar um orçamento para 2019".

Em relação à evolução do sector financeiro o responsável fala num "avanço encorajador no sentido da resolução dos litígios relacionados com o resgate bancário de 2015, cancelado pelo Governo"

Durante a sua estadia em Bissau Tobias Rasmussen reuniu com o Presidente José Mário Vaz, com o Primeiro-ministro e ministro das Finanças, Aristides Gomes, com a Directora Nacional do Banco Central dos Estados da África Ocidental (BCEAO), Helena Nosolini Embaló, com o Presidente do Partido Africano para a Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde (PAIGC), vencedor das últimas Legislativas, Domingos Simões Pereira, entre outros representantes do sector privado e da comunidade de doadores.

A missão poderá regressar a Bissau em setembro próximo para iniciar conversações sobre um novo acordo com o novo governo, que se espera esteja já em funções.

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